Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 4.488501 5.367126 6.342903 7.502750 8.839393 10.326948 12.103017
2025-03-09 3.021102 4.143191 5.535033 7.368702 9.698844 12.537338 16.229909
2025-03-16 2.123262 3.292949 4.891910 7.191167 10.358152 14.505637 20.274656
2025-03-23 1.706716 2.939621 4.767855 7.591099 11.736688 17.479226 25.883923
2025-03-30 1.344822 2.557019 4.495350 7.688196 12.649795 19.866261 30.897893
2025-04-06 1.066825 2.228300 4.221234 7.703763 13.397771 22.043755 35.770599
2025-04-13 0.852710 1.949947 3.962962 7.679208 14.044209 24.090756 40.587018
2025-04-20 0.769063 1.894191 4.073045 8.274735 15.737308 27.873813 48.320694
2025-04-27 0.658887 1.754411 3.998183 8.521883 16.855446 30.817911 54.945249
2025-05-04 0.576197 1.651509 3.971960 8.845270 18.125213 34.093881 62.317347
2025-05-11 0.479245 1.487906 3.789643 8.836304 18.783455 36.377562 68.199076
2025-05-18 0.378685 1.284096 3.479624 8.520267 18.823780 37.579339 72.321315
2025-05-25 0.290574 1.086457 3.148408 8.121626 18.685472 38.500443 76.123474
2025-06-01 0.238010 0.972574 2.991561 8.076727 19.244134 40.737150 82.413721
2025-06-08 0.190431 0.855311 2.799394 7.919301 19.550286 42.523079 88.015453
2025-06-15 0.173708 0.836099 2.861226 8.366422 21.174044 46.932044 98.688353
2025-06-22 0.148016 0.773777 2.789963 8.476595 22.073823 49.990053 107.018883
2025-06-29 0.123913 0.706640 2.689073 8.495180 22.768298 52.685548 114.819724
2025-07-06 0.102816 0.641508 2.578282 8.469074 23.354225 55.197209 122.408475
2025-07-13 0.098987 0.652727 2.711436 9.116546 25.568147 61.188831 137.091852
2025-07-20 0.087863 0.623949 2.707433 9.385081 26.905837 65.438226 148.558981
2025-07-27 0.079427 0.604667 2.731536 9.736238 28.474198 70.268831 161.427293
2025-08-03 0.066672 0.554761 2.635996 9.726516 29.152577 73.238440 170.699604